Validated consumer-utility framework for predicting legal vs. illicit cannabis market outcomes. Data-driven policy analysis across all 50 U.S. states supporting federal reform

Hawaii's Cannabis Crossroads: Why the Aloha State Will Capture 70% or 30% — Policy Choices That Determine Success

A predictive analysis using validated market transition frameworks The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Paradise Paradox Hawaii made history in 2000 as the first state to legalize medical cannabis through legislative action rather than ballot initiative. Twenty-five years later, that pioneering spirit has devolved into a cautionary tale: the

Georgia Cannabis Market Analysis: A Program So Restrictive It Barely Exists

How a decade of legislative failure left Georgia with the nation's most limited medical program—and why federal reform is the only path forward The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with

Florida Cannabis Market Analysis: America's Largest Medical-Only Market Trapped by Failed Reform

How federal reform could transform the Sunshine State's $1.6B medical market and why 56% wasn't enough The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View

Delaware Cannabis Market Analysis: Small State, Big Delays, Critical Crossroads

How federal reform and home cultivation could transform the First State's equity-focused market The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data on Harvard Dataverse. Delaware&

Connecticut Cannabis Market Analysis: Small State, Big Ambitions, Critical Challenges

How federal reform could save Connecticut's equity-focused market from regional price competition The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data on Harvard Dataverse. Connecticut'

Colorado Cannabis Market Analysis: The Gold Standard Under Siege

How the pioneer state's success proves federal reform is essential—and what's threatening its lead The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data

California Cannabis Market Analysis: The Golden State's Tarnished Dream and the Path Forward

How federal reform could unlock California's struggling $5 billion legal market The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data on Harvard Dataverse. California's

Arkansas Cannabis Market Analysis: Medical Success, Adult-Use Potential, and the Bible Belt Challenge

How the Natural State could optimize its medical program and prepare for adult-use legalization The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data on Harvard Dataverse. Arkansas'

Arizona Cannabis Market Analysis: How Tribal Gaming Success Blueprints Federal Cannabis Reform

Why the state that mastered tribal-state compacts can lead national cannabis policy The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis uses the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets with 5% mean absolute error. View validation data on Harvard Dataverse. Arizona's Unique

Alaska Cannabis Market Analysis: How Geography Limits Legal Market Success Despite Early Legalization

Using the CBDT Framework to understand why Alaska struggles at 48–55% legal share — and how policy optimization could reach 65–75% The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Alaska Paradox Alaska legalized adult-use cannabis in 2014 — earlier than Michigan, Illinois, New York, or New Jersey. The state has a

Alabama Cannabis Market Analysis: Why the Heart of Dixie Could Achieve 88–92% Legal Market Share

Using the CBDT Framework to predict Alabama’s market trajectory if adult-use legalization occurs The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Alabama Question Alabama isn’t California. It’s not Oregon or Colorado. It’s a conservative, law-and-order state in the Deep South with Republican supermajorities and a history of

The Black Market Death Equation: Why Cannabis Will Follow Nevada’s Path to Single-Digit Illicit Markets

A validated framework for predicting legal vs. illicit market outcomes across all vice market transitions The Silent Majority 420 | Updated November 2025 The Central Question When a government legalizes a previously prohibited good or service, what determines how much of the market transitions from illegal to legal? This question matters