Federal Bill Analysis: H.R. 4963 - Marijuana 1-to-3 Act of 2025

The Minimum Viable Reform

Primary Sponsor: Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL-17)
Cosponsors: Rep. David Joyce (R-OH-14), Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA-2)
Status: Introduced August 12, 2025 | Referred to Energy & Commerce and Judiciary Committees
Official Title: "Marijuana 1-to-3 Act of 2025"
Congress.gov: H.R. 4963

Executive Summary

The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act is the simplest federal cannabis reform bill in Congress: a two-page directive ordering the Attorney General to reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III within 60 days of enactment.

That's it. No banking provisions. No interstate commerce. No expungement. No social equity. Just rescheduling.

And that simplicity is precisely why this bill—while not enough—represents the correct first step in federal cannabis reform.

CBDT Assessment: The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act addresses the single highest-impact policy lever (280E elimination via rescheduling) without triggering the market fragmentation risks that doom more ambitious proposals. It's insufficient as comprehensive reform, but optimal as Phase 1 of a sequenced approach.

What the Bill Does

The bill text is remarkably concise:

"The Attorney General of the United States shall, by order not later than 60 days after the date of enactment of this section, transfer marijuana... from schedule I of such Act to schedule III of such Act."

Immediate Effects of Schedule III:

What It Does NOT Do:

• Does not legalize cannabis federally
• Does not enable interstate commerce
• Does not provide banking access (SAFE Banking still needed)
• Does not expunge prior convictions
• Does not create social equity programs
• Does not preempt state laws
• Does not resolve federal-state conflict

The CBDT Framework Analysis

The Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Framework evaluates cannabis policy through five scaled levers:

ΔU = 4(−g) + D + 1.2S + F + 0.6E − 0.8 × F_frag

Lever 1: Price Gap (g) — SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT

Weight: 4× (highest impact)

280E is the single largest artificial cost burden on legal cannabis. By eliminating it, the Marijuana 1-to-3 Act directly addresses the most heavily weighted lever in the CBDT equation.

Current 280E Impact on Pricing:

Estimated industry-wide 280E burden: $2+ billion annually.

For a cannabis business with $10M revenue and $7M in operating expenses:

• Under 280E: Taxable income = $10M (no deductions), Tax = ~$3-4M
• Under Schedule III: Taxable income = $3M (normal deductions), Tax = ~$630K

That's a $2.5-3.5M annual savings per $10M in revenue—savings that can be passed to consumers through lower prices or reinvested in operations.

CBDT Prediction: Schedule III rescheduling reduces the price gap lever by 15-25%, translating to 8-15% improvement in legal market share nationally over 24-36 months.

Lever 2: Access Density (D) — NO CHANGE

Weight: 1×

Rescheduling does not create new retail access points. State licensing regimes remain unchanged. Consumers in prohibition states still have zero legal access.

Assessment: Neutral impact.

Lever 3: Safety/Quality (S) — MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT

Weight: 1.2×

Schedule III maintains DEA oversight but reduces bureaucratic barriers for research. More research enables better understanding of cannabinoid safety profiles, which could inform state testing standards over time.

However, the bill contains no testing requirements, packaging standards, or potency limits. State regimes remain the sole source of consumer protection.

Assessment: Minor positive for research; neutral for immediate consumer safety.

Lever 4: Convenience (F) — NO CHANGE

Weight: 1×

The bill does not address banking. Cannabis businesses still face debanking, cash-only operations, and limited access to financial services. SAFE Banking remains necessary for meaningful convenience improvements.

Assessment: Neutral impact.

Lever 5: Enforcement (E) — NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE

Weight: 0.6×

Schedule III maintains federal prohibition—cannabis remains a controlled substance with DEA oversight. This preserves federal enforcement authority against interstate trafficking, which the MORE Act would eliminate.

State enforcement against unlicensed operators is unaffected.

Assessment: Preserves enforcement capability while reducing federal prosecution risk for state-compliant operators.

Fragmentation Modifier (F_frag) — MINIMAL PENALTY

Weight: −0.8×

This is where the Marijuana 1-to-3 Act's simplicity becomes its greatest strength.

The bill does not:

• Create conflicting federal/state regulatory frameworks
• Enable interstate commerce without tracking infrastructure
• Override state testing standards
• Disrupt existing state market structures

It simply removes the 280E penalty while leaving everything else intact.

CBDT Assessment: Near-zero fragmentation penalty. The bill improves one lever (price gap) without degrading others or introducing system incoherence.

Why "Not Enough" Is Actually Correct

Your instinct is right: this bill is insufficient as comprehensive reform. But comprehensive reform is not what's needed first.

The Sequencing Problem

The MORE Act attempts everything at once: descheduling, interstate commerce, expungement, social equity, federal taxation. The result is a bill that would destroy state markets through uncontrolled interstate commerce and testing standard collapse.

The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act attempts one thing: fix 280E.

The CBDT-Optimal Sequence

Phase 1: 280E Relief (This Bill)

• Addresses highest-weighted lever (price gap)
• Zero market disruption
• Bipartisan viability (Republican sponsor, bipartisan cosponsors)
• 2-page bill = minimal legislative complexity

Phase 2: SAFE Banking

• Addresses convenience lever
• Already has bipartisan support (passed House 7 times)
• Can move independently of rescheduling

Phase 3: Research Expansion

• Schedule III already enables this
• Additional legislation for specific funding programs

Phase 4: Interstate Commerce Framework

• Only after federal testing standards exist
• Only after seed-to-sale tracking is federalized
• Only with state opt-out provisions

Phase 5: Comprehensive Reform

• Expungement programs
• Social equity provisions
• Full federal framework

Each phase builds on the previous. None requires destroying what came before.

Sponsor Analysis

Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL-17) — Primary Sponsor

Steube has introduced this bill in every Congress since 2019. His consistency matters:

• 2019: H.R. 4323 (116th Congress) — No action
• 2021: H.R. 365 (117th Congress) — No action
• 2023: H.R. 610 (118th Congress) — No action
• 2025: H.R. 4963 (119th Congress) — Current

Key quote: "It makes zero sense that federal law treats marijuana the same as heroin and LSD. It is even more ridiculous that cocaine is technically classified as less restrictive than marijuana."

Steube is a conservative Republican from Florida—not a progressive cannabis champion. His sponsorship signals that Schedule III has become a mainstream Republican position, not a fringe reform.

Rep. David Joyce (R-OH-14) — First Cosponsor (September 16, 2025)

Joyce co-chairs the Congressional Cannabis Caucus. He's the lead sponsor of:

• STATES 2.0 Act (H.R. 2934) — Comprehensive reform bill
• SAFE Banking Act (multiple iterations) — Banking access

His endorsement of the Marijuana 1-to-3 Act signals strategic prioritization: get 280E relief now, pursue comprehensive reform later.

Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA-2) — Democratic Cosponsor (October 3, 2025)

Carter's cosponsorship makes this bipartisan—a critical threshold for any bill in a Republican-controlled House.

Louisiana is a conservative state with a limited medical program. Carter's support indicates Democratic willingness to accept incremental progress over perfect-but-impossible comprehensive reform.

Political Viability Assessment

Advantages

Obstacles

Prognosis

Passage probability: 15-25% — Higher than previous iterations due to:

1. Trump's public statements supporting rescheduling
2. Bipartisan cosponsorship
3. Industry consolidation around incremental approach

However, executive action remains the more likely path to Schedule III. If Trump directs DEA Administrator Terrance Cole to finalize the rescheduling rule initiated under Biden, legislation becomes unnecessary.

What's Still Missing

Even if the Marijuana 1-to-3 Act passes, significant gaps remain:

Banking Access

280E relief helps profitability, but businesses still can't access normal banking services. SAFE Banking remains essential.

Interstate Commerce

State markets remain siloed. California cannabis cannot legally reach Massachusetts. This is actually good for now—interstate commerce without federal testing standards would be catastrophic.

Expungement

The bill contains no provisions for clearing prior convictions. Hundreds of thousands of Americans retain cannabis records.

State-Federal Conflict

Cannabis remains federally prohibited. State-legal operators still technically violate federal law, creating ongoing legal uncertainty.

Social Equity

No provisions address the disproportionate impact of prohibition on communities of color.

CBDT Comparison: Reform Bills in the 119th Congress

The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act is the only reform bill that improves a lever without degrading others or introducing fragmentation.

Conclusion: The Right First Step

The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act is not comprehensive cannabis reform. It doesn't address banking, interstate commerce, expungement, or social equity.

But it does address 280E—the single highest-impact policy lever in the CBDT Framework.

What the bill gets right:

• Targets the correct lever (price gap via 280E)
• Minimal market disruption
• Preserves state regulatory autonomy
• Bipartisan viability
• Simple enough to actually pass

What the bill leaves undone:

• Everything else

That's not a criticism—it's a design feature. Complex bills fail. Simple bills occasionally pass.

The cannabis industry has spent a decade demanding comprehensive federal reform while watching those proposals die repeatedly. The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act offers a different theory of change: fix the worst problem first, build momentum, then pursue additional reforms.

CBDT Framework Score:

Predicted Outcome: If enacted, legal market share increases 8-15% nationally over 24-36 months as 280E savings translate to lower consumer prices and improved operator viability.

Bottom Line: This bill is the right answer to the wrong question. The industry wants comprehensive reform. What it needs is incremental progress. The Marijuana 1-to-3 Act delivers the most valuable increment available.

CBDT Framework Citation

This analysis applies the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Framework:

Silent Majority 420, "Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework: A Behavioral-Utility Heuristic for Illicit-to-Legal Market Transition," Zenodo, 2025. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17593077

Validation data available via Harvard Dataverse: 10.7910/DVN/MDVDTQ

Analysis by The Silent Majority 420 | Track this bill at tracker.silentmajority420.com