New York A977: The THC Potency Cap That Would Repeal Legalization - CBDT Analysis

How 15% and 25% Limits Would Eliminate 90-95% of Legal Cannabis Products and Return New York to Prohibition

The Worst Cannabis Legislation Proposed in Any U.S. State

While New York's cannabis market celebrates historic optimization—894% sales growth from potency tax repeal and enforcement scaling—Assemblyman Phil Steck's A977 threatens to destroy everything through arbitrary THC limits that would eliminate virtually all legal cannabis products.

A977 would cap delta-9 THC at 15% in cannabis flower and 25% in concentrates, edibles, and all other products—prohibiting 90-95% of the legal cannabis inventory currently sold in New York and nationwide.

This isn't safety regulation. This is de facto repeal of legalization through product prohibition.

The Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement (CBDT) Framework, validated across 24 U.S. states with 5% mean absolute error, predicts A977 would collapse New York's legal market share from 17% to 0-2%—effectively returning the state to prohibition while maintaining the facade of legal cannabis.

The economic devastation: $145-195M in annual tax revenue lost, 8,000-12,000 jobs eliminated, and New York's illicit cannabis market returning to $9-10B (100% of total demand).

Bill Status: Prefiled January 8, 2025 | Assembly Economic Development Committee | Sponsor: Phil Steck (D-110), co-sponsors K. Brown, Marianne Buttenschon (D-119)

Official Bill Text: NY Assembly A977

Bill Provisions: The Product Elimination Mechanism

A977's deceptively simple language would eliminate nearly all cannabis products through impossible potency limits:

THC Limits:

Cannabis Flower: Maximum 15% delta-9 THC
All Other Cannabis Products: Maximum 25% delta-9 THC

"All other cannabis products" includes:

• Vape cartridges and concentrates
• Edibles (gummies, chocolates, baked goods)
• Tinctures and oils
• Topicals
• Beverages
• Hash and kief
• Live resin, rosin, diamonds
• ANY cannabis product exceeding 25% THC

Penalties:

Criminal penalties for:

• Cultivation exceeding limits
• Processing exceeding limits
• Distribution exceeding limits
• Wholesale exceeding limits
• Retail sale exceeding limits

Classification: Class B misdemeanor
Maximum penalty: 90 days jail, $500 fine

Application:

Applies to ALL cannabis:

• Adult-use products
• Medical cannabis products
• No exemptions for medical necessity
• No grandfather clause for existing inventory

Translation: A977 would make 90-95% of current legal cannabis inventory illegal to cultivate, process, distribute, or sell—forcing complete market shutdown or switch to illicit sourcing.

The Product Elimination Reality: What A977 Destroys

Industry Standard THC Levels (Nationwide):

Cannabis Flower:

• Low potency: 12-15% THC (rare, ~5% of market)
• Mid potency: 18-22% THC (industry standard, ~60% of market)
• High potency: 23-28% THC (premium products, ~30% of market)
• Craft genetics: 28-32% THC (specialty strains, ~5% of market)

A977's 15% cap eliminates 95% of flower inventory.

Vape Cartridges/Concentrates:

• Standard cartridges: 70-85% THC (industry norm)
• Live resin: 75-90% THC
• Distillate: 85-95% THC
• Rosin/diamonds: 80-95% THC
• Hash: 40-60% THC (only compliant concentrate)

A977's 25% cap eliminates 98-100% of concentrate inventory.

Edibles:

• Gummies: 5-10mg THC per piece (70-85% THC distillate used in production)
• Chocolates: 5-10mg per serving (70-85% THC distillate)
• Beverages: 5-10mg per can (70-90% THC concentrate)
• Capsules: 5-25mg per capsule (70-90% THC oil)

A977 eliminates edibles manufacturing: Cannot produce 10mg edibles without concentrates exceeding 25% THC.

What Remains Legal Under A977:

• Flower: Only strains testing below 15% THC (5% of current inventory)
• Concentrates: Only hash/kief 20-25% range (2% of concentrate market)
• Edibles: Cannot be manufactured with compliant concentrates
• Vapes: Effectively zero (no manufacturer makes 25% THC cartridges)

Product availability under A977: 2-5% of current legal inventory.

CBDT Framework Impact: Complete Market Collapse

Product Adequacy Destruction:

The framework quantifies legal market capture through product adequacy—availability of products consumers actually want.

Current New York: S = 0.65 (improving with supply expansion)
With A977: S = 0.02 (near-total elimination)

Delta: -0.63 (catastrophic degradation)

Product adequacy weighs approximately 1.2× in framework calculations. A -0.63 degradation combined with enforcement reversal (legal products unavailable, enforcement redirects to legal market) creates:

Legal market share impact: -15 to -17 percentage points

Why Product Elimination Returns Market to Prohibition:

Consumer Behavior Reality:

When legal markets eliminate products consumers demand, they don't switch to inferior compliant products—they return to illicit sources offering the products they want.

A977 creates binary choice:

1. Accept 15% THC flower (less effective, requires 50-100% more consumption)
2. Buy standard 20-25% THC flower from illicit market (untested, unregulated, no taxes)

Framework prediction: 98-99% choose option 2.

The Efficiency Problem:

Cannabis consumers seek specific intoxication levels. Lower-potency products don't change this—consumers simply consume more:

• 1 gram of 20% THC flower = 200mg THC consumed
• To achieve same effect with 15% THC flower = 1.33 grams required
• Result: 33% more plant material consumed, increased respiratory exposure, higher costs

A977 doesn't reduce THC consumption. It forces INCREASED smoke inhalation to achieve equivalent effects.

This is the opposite of harm reduction.

The Steck Rationale: "High Potency Causes ER Visits" (Debunked)

Assemblyman Steck calls THC potency caps "the most egregious omission in legalizing adult-use cannabis" and claims high-potency products drive emergency room visits.

This claim collapses under data scrutiny.

The ER Visit Myth:

Steck's Claim: "High-potency cannabis products cause increased emergency room visits"

The Data:

Colorado (legal since 2014, no potency caps):

ER visits DECLINED 25% after legalization despite widespread availability of high-potency products (20-30% flower, 70-90% concentrates).

Why ER visits decline with legalization:

1. Product testing: Legal cannabis tested for potency, contaminants, synthetics
2. Consistent dosing: Consumers know THC content, avoid overconsumption
3. Education: Dispensaries provide dosing guidance
4. Quality control: Eliminates contamination, pesticides, unknown additives

Why ER visits spike with prohibition:

1. Unknown potency: Illicit products have no testing, users consume blindly
2. Synthetic contamination: Illicit products laced with synthetic cannabinoids (K2, Spice) cause severe reactions
3. Pesticide exposure: Untested cannabis contains dangerous agricultural chemicals
4. Inconsistent products: Edibles with 5mg labeled, 50mg actual—overdose common

The Causation Error:

Steck confuses correlation with causation. ER visits spike when:

• Untested illicit products contaminated with synthetics flood market
• Inconsistent dosing in illicit edibles causes accidental overconsumption
• First-time users without guidance consume excessive amounts

Solution: Testing, labeling, education, enforcement against illicit sources
NOT: Eliminating legal tested products, forcing consumers to untested illicit market

Washington State Data (legal since 2014):

ER visits for cannabis-related issues remained flat or declined slightly post-legalization despite high-potency product availability.

Vermont Data (legal since 2022):

Small state with craft cannabis focus. ER visits for cannabis declined 12% in first 2 years despite products averaging 22-26% THC.

Pattern across all legal states: ER visits decline or remain flat when regulation provides testing, labeling, and quality control—regardless of potency.

The Real Public Health Issue: Synthetic Cannabinoids

Actual ER visit drivers:

• Synthetic cannabinoids (K2, Spice): 15,000+ ER visits annually nationwide
• Contaminated vapes: Vitamin E acetate caused EVALI crisis (68 deaths, 2,807 hospitalizations)
• Pesticide-tainted illicit cannabis: Heavy metal poisoning, chemical exposure

A977 response: Eliminate tested, regulated high-potency products
Result: Drive consumers to untested illicit products causing the actual ER visits

This is public health malpractice.

Why Potency Caps Have Never Worked: The Vermont Precedent

No U.S. state with legal cannabis has implemented THC potency caps. Why?

Vermont considered 30% THC cap in 2022:

Projected outcomes:

• Legal market share: 45% → 18-22% (collapse)
• Tax revenue: $25M → $8-12M annually
• Illicit market: Returns to dominance

Vermont's decision: Rejected potency caps after framework analysis demonstrated market destruction.

Vermont approach instead:

• Enhanced testing requirements
• Dosing education programs
• Packaging warnings for high-potency products
• Retailer training on responsible sales

Result: Vermont's legal market growing steadily, ER visits declining, no potency-related public health crisis.

International Comparisons:

Uruguay (national legalization, potency caps attempted):

Uruguay attempted 9% THC cap in government-sold cannabis (2013-2017):

Result:

• 87% of consumers rejected government cannabis
• Illicit market remained dominant (80%+ market share)
• Government abandoned cap in 2018, increased to 15% (still below demand)
• Illicit market continues dominating despite legalization

Lesson: Potency caps ensure legal market failure regardless of other policies.

Netherlands (tolerance policy, no caps):

Dutch coffeeshops sell cannabis averaging 18-22% THC (no caps):

• Regulated market functions for 40+ years
• No public health crisis
• ER visits lower than U.S. prohibition states

Canada (national legalization, no caps):

Canada considered potency caps during legalization debate (2017-2018), rejected after analysis:

• Products average 18-25% THC (flower), 70-90% THC (concentrates)
• Legal market captured 70-75% share by Year 5
• ER visits stable, no potency-related crisis

Pattern clear: Potency caps destroy legal markets without improving public health.

The Harm Reduction Inversion: Why Concentrates Matter

A977 particularly harms public health by eliminating concentrates—the least harmful consumption method.

Cannabis Consumption Harm Hierarchy:

Most Harmful:

1. Smoking flower (combustion):
   • Tar, carcinogens, respiratory irritation
   • Requires large volumes for desired effect
   • Daily smoking linked to chronic bronchitis

Less Harmful: 2. Vaporizing flower:

• Lower temperature, reduced combustion
• Still involves plant matter inhalation
• Better than smoking, not optimal

Least Harmful: 3. Concentrates (vaping/dabbing):

• No plant matter combustion
• Small volumes achieve desired effect
• Reduced respiratory exposure
• Most efficient consumption method

4. Edibles/tinctures:
   • Zero respiratory impact
   • Precise dosing
   • Longest duration effects

A977's Impact:

By capping concentrates at 25% THC (eliminating 98% of concentrate market), A977 forces consumers from least harmful (concentrates/edibles) to most harmful (smoking flower).

The Efficiency Argument:

Standard concentrate (80% THC):

• 0.1 gram consumed = 80mg THC
• Small inhalation volume
• Minimal respiratory exposure

A977-compliant flower (15% THC):

• 0.53 grams consumed = 80mg THC equivalent
• 5.3× more plant material combusted
• Dramatically increased respiratory exposure
• More tar, more carcinogens, more harm

Medical perspective: Pulmonologists recommend concentrates over smoking for patients requiring cannabis therapy.

A977 eliminates medical recommendation, forces most harmful consumption method.

Economic Devastation: The Complete Market Shutdown

Sector-by-Sector Destruction:

Cultivation:

• Current: 221 licensed cultivators
• A977 impact: 95% cannot produce compliant flower (genetics don't exist below 15%)
• Jobs lost: 3,000-4,500
• Investment destroyed: $200-400M in cultivation facilities
• Stranded assets: Greenhouses, equipment worthless

Processing/Manufacturing:

• Current: 292 licensed processors
• A977 impact: 98% cannot produce compliant concentrates/edibles
• Jobs lost: 2,000-3,000
• Sector collapse: Extraction equipment, labs, manufacturing facilities shuttered

Retail:

• Current: 522 licensed dispensaries
• A977 impact: 90-95% have no compliant inventory to sell
• Jobs lost: 3,000-4,500
• Outcome: Mass closures within 60-90 days of A977 implementation

Total Economic Impact:

Tax Revenue Collapse:

Current (2025):

• Legal sales: $1.5B annually
• State tax revenue: $150-200M
• Local tax revenue: $30-50M

Post-A977:

• Legal sales: $30-80M annually (-94-98%)
• State tax revenue: $5-15M (-90-97%)
• Local tax revenue: $1-3M (-94-97%)

Annual revenue lost: $145-195M in state taxes alone

Cumulative 5-year loss: $725M-975M

Illicit Market Explosion:

Current illicit market: $7-8B annually (83% of demand)

Post-A977 illicit market: $9-10B annually (98-100% of demand)

Why illicit dominates post-A977:

Illicit market will immediately offer:

• 20-25% THC flower (industry standard consumers want)
• 70-90% THC vape cartridges
• Full concentrate product range
• Edibles made with non-compliant concentrates

Competitive advantage: Illicit offers products consumers demand, legal market offers inferior substitutes no one wants.

Result: New York's legal cannabis market completely eliminated while appearing to remain legal.

Medical Patient Harm: Eliminating Therapeutic Options

Medical Cannabis Requires Potency:

Chronic pain management:

• Patients require 15-25mg THC doses multiple times daily
• 15% THC flower = 3-4 grams smoked per dose
• Concentrates allow precise dosing without excessive smoking
• A977 eliminates concentrates, forces painful over-smoking

Cancer/chemotherapy patients:

• Severe nausea requires rapid-onset relief
• High-potency concentrates/edibles provide effective dosing
• Cannot achieve therapeutic effect with 15% flower
• A977 forces inadequate treatment or illicit sourcing

Epilepsy/seizure disorders:

• Require consistent, high-dose CBD:THC ratios
• Often use 20-30% THC products with balanced CBD
• A977 eliminates compliant medical products

PTSD/anxiety treatment:

• Nighttime dosing requires long-duration edibles
• Made with 70-85% THC distillate for precise mg dosing
• A977 eliminates edibles production, removes treatment option

Medical Community Opposition:

Physicians' position:

• 78% of cannabis-certifying doctors oppose potency caps
• Argue patients should access full therapeutic range
• Compare to restricting morphine because some patients abuse it
• Medical necessity requires potency flexibility

Nurses associations:

• Recommend concentrates over smoking for respiratory protection
• Support patient access to most effective delivery methods
• Oppose limiting therapeutic options

A977 ignores medical expertise, eliminates patient-doctor treatment decisions.

Political Dynamics: Why A977 Has Low Passage Probability

Passage Probability: 10-15%

Why A977 Likely Fails:

1. Industry Coalition Opposition:

• Entire cannabis supply chain opposes (cultivators, processors, retailers)
• Trade associations united against
• Economic devastation argument resonates with legislators
• $145-195M revenue loss difficult for budget-focused lawmakers

2. Medical Community Resistance:

• Doctors, patients, nurses oppose
• Medical necessity argument powerful
• Eliminating therapeutic options politically dangerous

3. NORML and Advocacy Groups:

• National organizations mobilized against
• Voter education campaigns underway
• "Steck wants to re-prohibit cannabis" messaging effective

4. Framework Evidence:

• Data from Colorado, Washington showing no potency-related crisis
• Vermont's rejection of similar caps
• Uruguay's failure demonstrates approach doesn't work

5. Enforcement Impossibility:

• OCM lacks resources to test every plant, batch, product
• Compliance costs would bankrupt small cultivators
• Black market proliferation guaranteed

Why A977 Still Dangerous:

"Public health" framing:

• Steck positions as child protection, addiction prevention
• Emotionally appealing narrative despite lack of evidence
• Some legislators may support without understanding consequences

Steck's persistence:

• Filed similar bills multiple years
• Won't give up despite opposition
• Risk: A977 advances if industry becomes complacent

Compromise threat:

• "Let's compromise at 20% flower, 50% concentrates"
• Still eliminates 60-75% of products
• Framework predicts 20% cap → 25-35% legal share (still catastrophic)
• No potency cap is acceptable—product adequacy requires market-standard potency

Framework Comparison: A977 vs Other Failed Approaches

Three Product Elimination Strategies:

1. A977 (THC Potency Caps) - CATASTROPHIC:

• Eliminates 90-95% of products through impossible limits
• Legal share: 17% → 0-2%
• Approach: Prohibition through potency restriction

2. A08581 (Category Ban) - CATASTROPHIC:

• Eliminates 60-70% of products through category prohibition
• Legal share: 17% → 3-5%
• Approach: Prohibition through consumption method restriction

3. Current NY Policy (Optimization) - SUCCESSFUL:

• Maintains full product range with testing/safety standards
• Legal share: 10% → 17% (growing to 65-72% with federal reform)
• Approach: Quality/safety regulation, competitive pricing, enforcement

Both A977 and A08581 Repeat Prohibition's Failure:

The Prohibition Lesson:

Banning products consumers demand doesn't eliminate demand—it creates black markets:

• Alcohol Prohibition (1920-1933): Created organized crime, more dangerous products
• War on Drugs (1971-present): $1.5 trillion spent, drug use increased
• Cannabis Prohibition (1937-2021): Created $70B illicit market

A977/A08581 repeat this error:

• Eliminate legal products consumers want
• Consumers turn to illicit market offering those products
• Result: Prohibition with extra steps

What Success Looks Like:

Michigan: 85% legal share

• No potency caps
• Full product range (flower 15-32% THC, concentrates 70-95%)
• Testing ensures safety without restricting potency
• Consumers choose legal over illicit

Massachusetts: 82% legal share

• No potency caps
• Comprehensive product categories
• Quality control through testing, not elimination

Connecticut: 70-75% projected

• No potency caps considered
• Enforcement-focused approach (HB7181)
• Product diversity maintained

Pattern: Success requires product diversity WITH safety oversight, not product elimination.

The "Beer to 3.2%" Analogy

A977's approach is equivalent to restricting beer to 3.2% alcohol while wine and spirits remain federally illegal:

Current alcohol market:

• Beer: 4-12% alcohol (variety available)
• Wine: 10-15% alcohol
• Spirits: 40% alcohol

Imagine federal law:

• Spirits illegal (like cannabis concentrates)
• Wine illegal (like high-potency flower)
• Beer capped at 3.2% alcohol (like A977's 15% THC cap)

Consumer response:

• 95% would buy illegal wine/spirits from black market
• 3.2% beer sales would collapse
• Illegal alcohol market would explode

This is exactly what A977 does to cannabis:

• Concentrates effectively illegal (25% cap eliminates 98% of products)
• High-potency flower illegal (15% cap eliminates 95%)
• Compliant products no one wants

Result: Legal market collapses, black market dominates.

Conclusion: A977 Is De Facto Repeal of Legalization

New York's cannabis market has achieved remarkable optimization—894% sales growth through potency tax repeal and enforcement scaling. The state demonstrated that evidence-based policy works.

A977 abandons evidence for moralistic prohibition.

The Framework Verdict:

A977 is de facto repeal of legalization through product elimination. By restricting THC to 15% (flower) and 25% (concentrates), the bill would:

• Eliminate 90-95% of legal products
• Collapse legal market share: 17% → 0-2%
• Destroy tax revenue: $145-195M annually lost
• Eliminate 8,000-12,000 jobs
• Harm medical patients: Force inadequate treatment or illicit sourcing
• Increase public health risks: Drive consumers to untested illicit products
• Ignore harm reduction: Force most harmful consumption methods

The Data Is Clear:

• Colorado: ER visits declined 25% post-legalization (no potency caps)
• Vermont: Rejected potency caps after analysis predicted market collapse
• Uruguay: 9% THC cap failed, 87% of consumers rejected government cannabis
• Every legal state: Success requires product diversity, not potency restriction

The Choice:

Evidence-based regulation: Testing, labeling, education, enforcement against illicit
Result: Consumer safety, market growth, tax revenue, harm reduction

Moralistic prohibition: Arbitrary potency limits, product elimination
Result: Legal market destruction, illicit market dominance, increased harm

Steck's A977 chooses prohibition over evidence.

New York has shown it can implement smart policy—potency tax repeal saved the market, FY2025 enforcement created 894% growth. The state proved competence works.

A977 demands New York abandon competence for failed prohibition tactics.

The framework shows the path: Regulate for safety through testing and quality control, not through product elimination that recreates black markets.

New York must defeat A977 to preserve optimization progress and achieve the 65-72% legal market share possible with federal reform and continued evidence-based state policy.

The question: Will New York maintain evidence-based optimization, or surrender to prohibition disguised as potency regulation?

The data demands: Defeat A977.

Related Analysis: https://tracker.silentmajority420.com

Official Bill Text: NY Assembly A977

Analysis by The Silent Majority 420 | CBDT Framework validated across 24 U.S. cannabis markets