Federal and state cannabis policy analysis through the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Theory (CBDT) Framework. Track active legislation, regulatory changes, and market dynamics across all 50 states. Our analysis examines how policy design impacts legal market adoption, black market displacement, and consumer behavior. Academic framework published in Harvard Dataverse provides evidence-based insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders and researchers navigating cannabis reform.
Legislative Analysis
How "Child Safety" Rhetoric Masks a 60-70% Product Category Ban That Would Collapse New York's Cannabis Market The Stealth Prohibition Worse Than Potency Caps While New York's cannabis industry celebrates 894% sales growth from tax reform and enforcement scaling, Assembly Bill A08581 threatens to
Legislative Analysis
Preventing the Illinois Mistake—Why Revenue Optimization Requires Tax Stability The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillSB 89Session2025 Regular SessionTitleAn Act Relating to Taxation; Freezing Cannabis Excise Tax at Current RateSponsorsSen. George Muñoz (D-Gallup), Sen. Pete Campos (D-Las Vegas)StatusPending in Senate Tax, Business &
Legislative Analysis
Supplier-Focused Enforcement Complements Price Competitiveness—But Cannot Replace It The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillHB 10Session2025 Regular SessionTitleAn Act Relating to Cannabis Regulation; Creating the Cannabis Control Division Enforcement BureauSponsorsRep. Andrea Romero (D-Albuquerque), Sen. Katy Duhigg (D-Albuquerque)VoteHouse passed February 13, 2025 (55-5); Senate
Legislative Analysis
Senator Singleton's home cultivation bills would reduce retail dispensary sales by 5-7 percentage points while increasing total legal market participation by 8-12 percentage points—a net gain for public safety, consumer choice, and overall legal market compliance. The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 Bill Status Senate Bill: S1985
Legislative Analysis
Senate President Scutari's proposal to jail consumers for buying from unlicensed sources represents unprecedented policy failure: treating symptoms instead of disease, punishing economically rational behavior, and ignoring the fundamental lesson that enforcement complements price competitiveness but cannot replace it. The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 Bill Status Bill
Legislative Analysis
Governor Murphy's proposed Social Equity Excise Fee increase represents textbook fiscal policy failure: higher tax rates generating lower total revenue by destroying legal market volume. The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 Proposal Status Proposal: FY2026 Budget - Social Equity Excise Fee (SEEF) Increase Status: Proposed February 2025, pending
Legislative Analysis
How Nevada's 2025 omnibus cannabis reform bill arms regulators with subpoena authority, administrative fines, and disciplinary process reforms—adding 0.5–1.0 percentage points to legal market share through enhanced enforcement The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Enforcement Gap: Nevada's $242–370M Problem Nevada&
Legislative Analysis
How Nevada's 2025 consumer protection legislation eliminates fake dispensaries while SB 356 channels intoxicating hemp through licensed markets—adding 0.6–1.2 percentage points to legal cannabis market share The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Strip Problem: When Hemp Stores Pretend to Be Dispensaries Walk down
Legislative Analysis
Bill Status: Introduced February 2025, Hearing Scheduled Then Cancelled, Died Without Committee Vote Impact on Legal Market: Severe negative—would have destroyed 8-12 percentage points of market share CBDT Framework Application: Convenience barrier and political instability analysis Last Updated: November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillSB 255Session2025 Regular SessionTitleProvide
Legislative Analysis
Bill Status: Passed Senate 42-8, House 74-26 (veto-proof majorities), Vetoed by Governor Gianforte (June 10, 2025), Veto Override Failed Impact on Legal Market: Moderate positive (enforcement + treatment funding), undermined by executive veto CBDT Framework Application: Enforcement and political coordination lever analysis Last Updated: November 2025 The Bill at a Glance
Legislative Analysis
Bill Status: Passed Senate 30-20, Failed in Senate Finance Committee (April 1, 2025) Impact on Legal Market: Indirect—enforcement funding vs. conservation trade-off CBDT Framework Application: Political stability and enforcement lever analysis Last Updated: November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillSB 307Session2025 Regular SessionTitleReallocate Montana marijuana tax revenueSponsorSen. Tom
Legislative Analysis
Executive Summary Bill: HB 4951 (Comprehensive Road Funding Tax Act) Sponsor: Rep. Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) Status: SIGNED INTO LAW (October 7, 2025), effective January 1, 2026 Vote: House 78-21 (September 25), Senate 19-17 (October 3) Official Text: Michigan Legislature HB 4951 Tracker: Silent Majority 420 Legislation Tracker Constitutional Challenge: