Federal and state cannabis policy analysis through the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Theory (CBDT) Framework. Track active legislation, regulatory changes, and market dynamics across all 50 states. Our analysis examines how policy design impacts legal market adoption, black market displacement, and consumer behavior. Academic framework published in Harvard Dataverse provides evidence-based insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders and researchers navigating cannabis reform.
Legislative Analysis
Bill Number: S.2722 Title: An Act modernizing the Commonwealth's cannabis laws Sponsor: Senate Committee on Ways and Means Status: Passed Massachusetts Senate 30-7 (November 19, 2025), currently in conference committee with House Bill 4187 Companion Bill: H.4187 (passed House June 4, 2025, 153-0) Official Text: Massachusetts
Legislative Analysis
CBDT Analysis: Closing the Hemp Loophole That Undermines Legal Cannabis Bill Status: Passed, signed into law, effective July 1, 2025 | Upheld by Appellate Court September 9, 2025 Impact on Legal Market: +3-5 percentage points (safety/quality improvement + channeling effect) CBDT Framework Application: Safety/Quality variable + enforcement improvement Last Updated: November
Legislative Analysis
CBDT Analysis: Why Maryland's Social Consumption Initiative Matters Bill Status: Introduced 2025 session, pending committee action Impact on Legal Market: +1-2 percentage points (modest convenience improvement) CBDT Framework Application: Convenience variable analysis + tourism appeal Last Updated: November 2025 Bill at a Glance CategoryDetailsOfficial TitleSB 215 - Medical Cannabis
Legislative Analysis
Testing Requirements PLUS Potency Caps—When Good Intentions Create Unintended Consequences Bill Status: Carried over to 2026 session after 2025 debate | Even stronger industry opposition than LD 104 | Pediatric safety concerns vs. patient access conflict CBDT Impact: -1 to -3 percentage points legal market share | Potency caps drive high-need patients
Legislative Analysis
Maine Becomes 49th State to Require Medical Cannabis Testing—But Will Small Caregivers Survive Implementation? Bill Status: Carried over to 2026 session after extensive 2025 debate | 1,000+ pieces of written testimony received | Strong industry opposition from medical caregivers | Public health advocates support CBDT Impact: +1-3 percentage points legal market
Legislative Analysis
How Banning Cannabis Education Sabotages Future Legal Market Optimization Bill Status: Signed by Governor Mike Braun, May 6, 2025, Effective Immediately CBDT Verdict: Catastrophically negative for Indiana's eventual legal market (-8 to -12 percentage points in legal market share when legalization finally occurs) Last Updated: November 2025 The
Legislative Analysis
Legislature Seeks to Permanently Remove Voter Authority Over Marijuana Policy The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillHouse Joint Resolution 4 (HJR004)Session2025 Regular SessionTitleA Joint Resolution Proposing an Amendment to Section 26, Article III of the Constitution of the State of Idaho to Provide That
Legislative Analysis
America's Harshest First-Offense Penalty Entrenches 100% Black Market Share The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 The Bill at a Glance FieldDetailsBillHB 7Session2025 Regular SessionTitleAn Act Relating to Marijuana; Amending Section 37-2732, Idaho Code, to Provide a Mandatory Minimum Fine for Possession of MarijuanaSponsorRep. Bruce Skaug (R-Nampa)Co-sponsorsSen. Brandon
Legislative Analysis
Bill Status: Passed Legislature, Signed by Governor Green (Act 241, 2025) Impact on Legal Market: Medical program expansion, NOT adult-use CBDT Framework Application: Medical market penetration analysis Last Updated: November 2025 Bill at a Glance CategoryDetailsOfficial TitleHB 302 / Act 241 - Relating to Medical Use of CannabisPrimary SponsorRep. Gregg Takayama
Legislative Analysis
Bill Status: Passed Senate 39-17 (March 2025), Died in House, Carries Over to 2026 Impact on Legal Market: Medical program expansion, NOT adult-use CBDT Framework Application: Medical market capacity analysis Last Updated: November 2025 Bill at a Glance CategoryDetailsOfficial TitleSB 220 - "Putting Georgia's Patients First Act&
Legislative Analysis
Initiative Status: Active – 675,307 signatures verified (need 880,062) Deadline: February 1, 2026 Projected Legal Market Share: 84-87% Last Updated: November 25, 2025 Initiative at a Glance ElementDetailsOfficial TitleAdult Personal Use of Marijuana (25-01)SponsorSmart & Safe FloridaTarget ElectionNovember 2026 General ElectionSignature Threshold880,062 verified signatures (8% of 2020
Legislative Analysis
What the 56% Vote Revealed About DeSantis, Trulieve, and Florida's Cannabis Future The Silent Majority 420 | November 2025 This analysis examines Florida Amendment 3's November 2024 defeat—the most expensive cannabis ballot measure in U.S. history—and what it reveals about legal market optimization, political