What is the CBDT Framework?

The Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Theory (CBDT) is a validated predictive framework for legal cannabis market share. Using the formula ΔU = 4(−g) + D + 1.2S + F + 0.6E − 0.8F_frag, it achieves r=0.968 correlation across 24 U.S. states with 5% mean absolute error. Published via Harvard Dataverse (DOI:10.7910/DVN/MDVDTQ).

Are these tools free to use?

Yes, all three tools—STONKS stock screener, CBDT Calculator, and Legislation Tracker—are completely free. They're designed to bring data-driven cannabis policy analysis to investors, policymakers, operators, and advocates.

Why do Canadian LPs rally on US federal reform news if they don't benefit?

This is the mispricing problem STONKS exposes. Canadian Licensed Producers operate in federally legal Canadian markets and have no US plant-touching operations. When 280E is eliminated via Schedule III, US MSOs save $2+ billion annually—Canadian LPs save $0. When SAFE Banking passes, US MSOs gain traditional banking access—Canadian LPs already have it. Retail investors often pile into Canadian LPs on reform headlines, creating rallies disconnected from fundamental value.

Cannabis Policy & Investment Tools

Three free tools powered by the CBDT Framework—bringing data-driven analysis to cannabis policy and investment decisions.

STONKS: Cannabis Stock Screener

The mispricing problem, visualized.

Canadian LPs rally on 280E and SAFE Banking news—but they receive zero benefit from U.S. federal reform. This screener exposes which companies actually gain from policy changes versus which are riding momentum disconnected from fundamentals.

Features:

Live stock prices via Finnhub API
280E tax burden estimates for 14 US MSOs
CBDT Framework state-level market scoring
Reform upside multiples showing P/E expansion potential
Filter by company type, 280E exposure, and market cap

25 tickers tracked: US MSOs (TCNNF, CURLF, GTBIF, CRLBF, VRNOF, and more) vs Canadian LPs (TLRY, CGC, ACB, CRON, SNDL) with clear warnings on who benefits from what.

Launch STONKS →

CBDT Calculator: Predict Market Outcomes

Turn policy into predictions.

Adjust five policy levers and watch legal market share update in real-time. The same framework that achieves 5% mean absolute error across 24 U.S. markets—now interactive.

The Five Levers:

Price Gap — Legal vs. black market pricing (280E impact)
Access Density — Dispensaries per capita (SAFE Banking impact)
Safety/Quality — Testing and standards (Schedule III impact)
Convenience — Hours, payment, delivery (SAFE Banking impact)
Enforcement — Black market prosecution intensity

Use cases: Model 280E removal impact. Forecast SAFE Banking effects. Compare state policies. Show legislators the cost of bad tax policy.

Includes presets for Colorado, Oregon, California, New York, and more validated markets.

Launch Calculator →

Legislation Tracker: Real-Time Policy Monitoring

1,000+ bills across 50 states and Congress.

Comprehensive cannabis legislation tracking with CBDT Framework analysis. Know what's moving, what matters, and what it means for markets.

What it tracks:

Federal reform (SAFER Banking, Schedule III, 280E fixes)
State legalization initiatives
Taxation and licensing changes
Social equity and expungement bills

What it analyzes:

Price competitiveness impact
Convenience and access effects
Regulatory burden assessment
Passage probability ratings

The honest limitation: Automated tracking catches ~95% of bills. Appropriations riders like H.R. 5371's hemp ban slip through. That's why this tracker pairs with deep analysis articles explaining the 5% that matters most.

Launch Tracker →

The CBDT Framework

All three tools are powered by the Consumer-Driven Black Market Displacement Theory—a validated predictive framework for legal cannabis market share.

Formula: ΔU = 4(−g) + D + 1.2S + F + 0.6E − 0.8F_frag

Validation: r = 0.968 correlation | 5% MAE | 87.5% directional accuracy

Published: Harvard Dataverse (DOI:10.7910/DVN/MDVDTQ)

Read the full methodology →